The thesis
RSI Snap-Back is a mean-reversion play on the Mag-7 — AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, META and TSLA. The bet is simple: large-cap tech overshoots on short-term momentum and then snaps back. The strategy buys the most oversold names at RSI below 35, exits into strength above RSI 70, and holds a hard four-slot book to cap concurrent exposure. The discipline is the point — a fixed roster forces rotation rather than piling into a single runaway name, and limits how much drawdown can stack up at once.
Recent activity
The last week has been quiet. Five of the six scheduled runs since 30 October executed nothing; the book made just two entries — 7 shares of GOOGL at $280.28 on 30 October and 10 shares of NVDA at $204.04 on 2 November. That leaves it holding two of its four slots and sitting on $5,956.92 in cash, roughly 60% of the portfolio. Total equity drifted between about $9,797 and $10,023 across the window, closing at $9,836.56 on 6 November — essentially flat to marginally underwater against the $10,000 starting line.
The inactivity is the model behaving as designed: with nothing oversold enough to trigger, it waits. But a half-empty book and a large idle cash balance also mean the capital isn't working, and the flat live tape stands in sharp contrast to the backtest below.
Backtest and validation
On paper the record is respectable: a 20.95% total return over 451 days, final equity of $12,095, and an 11.21% CAGR. The win rate is a healthy 66.67% across 37 trades, and costs were negligible — $37 in fees and no FX drag.
The caveats are real. Sharpe is a modest 0.61, so those returns came with meaningful volatility, and the 23.73% max drawdown is steep for a strategy whose selling point is disciplined risk control. Turnover of 773% marks this as an active rotator, and in live trading that churn costs more than a frictionless backtest implies. Most important, the validation field is empty: there is no out-of-sample or walk-forward check on record, so we cannot yet separate genuine edge from curve-fit.
Verdict
The idea is sound and the backtest is encouraging, but two things keep this a "watch," not a "trust." Live results so far are flat-to-down while the strategy sits mostly in cash, and without validation the 20.95% headline is unconfirmed. The next few oversold triggers — and whether the four-slot book actually fills — will tell us more than today's numbers do.