The idea
RSI Snap-Back is a mean-reversion play on the Magnificent Seven — AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, META and TSLA. The thesis is simple and testable: large-cap tech names tend to overshoot on short-term momentum, then snap back. The strategy buys the most oversold names when RSI drops below 35, exits when RSI climbs above 70, and enforces discipline through a hard four-slot book. That cap is doing real work — it limits how much concurrent drawdown the strategy can carry when several names sell off together, which for seven correlated mega-caps is a genuine risk.
Recent activity
The live record so far is defined by patience, not action. Scheduled runs from October 18 through 22 all came back empty: zero executed, zero rejected, the book sitting in $10,000 of cash. The entry rule is strict, and for most of that window nothing in the universe was oversold enough to trigger it. The first real move landed on October 23, when the strategy bought 6 shares of GOOGL at $321.67 — a single oversold name claiming one of the four slots. After that trade, cash stood at $8,064.65 and total equity at $9,994.67, essentially flat on inception. One slot filled, three still open and waiting.
Backtest and validation
The backtest is the strongest part of the case, and also the part to treat most carefully. Over 451 days the strategy returned 20.95% (final equity $12,095.14), an 11.21% CAGR, with a 66.67% win rate across 37 trades. Costs were negligible: $37 in fees and no FX drag. Those are respectable numbers for a rules-based system.
The caveats are just as clear. A Sharpe of 0.61 is modest — the returns came with meaningful volatility, confirmed by a 23.73% max drawdown that nearly equals the total return. In other words, an investor would have had to stomach a loss almost the size of the eventual gain. Turnover of 773% also signals heavy rotation; the four-slot book churns, and in a higher-fee or real-money setting that friction would bite harder than the backtest's $37 suggests.
Most important: the validation field is null. There is no out-of-sample or walk-forward check behind the headline figure. For a parameter-driven strategy — RSI thresholds of 35 and 70, a four-name cap — that absence is the single biggest risk. We cannot yet distinguish genuine edge from curve-fitting.
Bottom line
RSI Snap-Back pairs a clean, disciplined thesis with an encouraging but unvalidated backtest. The live book is one trade old and dead flat, so there is nothing to conclude from real performance yet. The honest verdict: promising mechanics, a drawdown profile that demands patience, and a validation gap that must close before the 20.95% headline earns any trust.