The thesis
RSI Snap-Back is a straightforward mean-reversion play on the seven largest US tech names — AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, META and TSLA. The logic is disciplined: buy the most oversold names when RSI drops below 35, exit when RSI pushes above 70, and hold no more than four positions at once. That hard 4-slot book is the strategy's most interesting design choice. Rather than chase every signal, it forces the model to rank conviction and caps concurrent drawdown exposure — a sensible guard for a book concentrated in high-beta megacaps that tend to sell off together.
Recent activity
Here the picture is quiet to the point of dormant. Across six scheduled runs between 10 and 18 September, the strategy executed zero trades and rejected zero — cash and total equity have both held flat at $10,000 the entire stretch. In plain terms: none of the Mag-7 has printed an RSI low enough to trigger an entry. That is not a malfunction; it is the strategy behaving exactly as specified during a period without short-term momentum extremes. Still, a fully idle book earns nothing, and prolonged inactivity is a real cost when capital could be working elsewhere. The absence of any recent fills also means the live track record remains thin, so current conviction rests almost entirely on the backtest.
Backtest and validation
Over 451 days the strategy returned 20.95% (final equity $12,095), an 11.21% CAGR, with a 66.67% win rate across 37 trades and negligible frictions — $37 in fees, no FX cost. A two-in-three win rate and low trading costs are genuine strengths.
The risk profile is more sobering. The Sharpe ratio of 0.61 is modest, and the 23.73% maximum drawdown is steep for a strategy pitched as risk-controlled — a reminder that the 4-slot cap limits breadth of exposure, not the correlated depth of a tech-wide selloff. Turnover of 773% is high, implying frequent rotation; the low absolute fee tally is more a function of small position sizes than of a low-churn approach.
Most importantly, the validation field is null. There is no reported out-of-sample or walk-forward test, so we cannot yet distinguish genuine edge from curve-fit on a single favourable window. For a live strategy, that gap is the headline risk.
Verdict
RSI Snap-Back is coherent and cheap to run, with an encouraging win rate and a principled position cap. But the honest read is cautious: a respectable-but-unremarkable Sharpe, a drawdown that undercuts the "disciplined" framing, and — critically — no validation to confirm the backtest generalises. The current cash-heavy idle stretch is the design working as intended, not a red flag in itself. The next milestone worth watching is simple: a genuine oversold signal that puts capital to work, and a proper out-of-sample study to back the numbers up.