The Thesis
RSI Snap-Back is a mean-reversion play on the Magnificent Seven — AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, META and TSLA. The premise is straightforward: large-cap tech names tend to overshoot on short-term momentum extremes and then snap back. The strategy buys the most oversold names when RSI drops below 35, exits when RSI climbs above 70, and enforces discipline with a hard four-slot book. That cap on concurrent positions is a sensible way to limit drawdown exposure and force the strategy to rotate into genuinely oversold candidates rather than accumulating a sprawling book.
It is a clean, well-understood edge. Mean reversion in liquid mega-caps is a documented phenomenon, and the tight universe keeps execution simple.
Recent Activity
Here the picture is quieter than the thesis suggests. Across six scheduled runs between 2 and 9 September 2026, the strategy executed zero trades and rejected zero. It has been sitting entirely in cash — $10,000 in, $10,000 total, no positions — for more than a week. There are no recent fills to report.
That is not necessarily a fault. If none of the seven names has printed an RSI below 35, the correct behaviour for a disciplined reverter is to do nothing and wait. But a strategy that is fully in cash is also a strategy earning nothing, and a prolonged flat stretch is worth watching: it may signal that the entry threshold is too strict for the current low-volatility regime, or simply that the Mag-7 has been grinding without the oversold dislocations the model needs.
Backtest & Validation
The backtest covers 451 days and 37 trades, ending at $12,095 in equity — a 20.95% total return and 11.21% CAGR. The win rate is a healthy 66.67%, and fees were negligible ($37 total, no FX cost).
The risk figures are more sobering. Sharpe sits at 0.61 — modest, indicating returns came with meaningful volatility. Maximum drawdown reached 23.73%, which is large relative to the annualised return; an investor would have had to stomach losing nearly a quarter of capital at the trough. Turnover is a striking 773%, reflecting frequent rotation — manageable at these fee levels, but a real drag if spreads or costs rise.
Most importantly: validation is null. There is no out-of-sample or walk-forward test on record. The headline metrics simply mirror the backtest, so nothing yet confirms the edge holds outside the fitted window.
Verdict
RSI Snap-Back rests on a defensible thesis and shows a strong win rate and clean cost profile. But the Sharpe is uninspiring, the drawdown is heavy, the strategy is currently idle in cash, and — the key gap — it has no independent validation. Promising in concept, but treat the performance as provisional until out-of-sample results arrive.