The Thesis
RSI Snap-Back is a mean-reversion play on the seven largest US tech names — AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, META, and TSLA. The premise is simple and time-tested: large-cap tech tends to overshoot in the short term, then snap back. The strategy buys the most oversold names as RSI drops below 35 and exits into strength above 70, rotating to hold a tight four-name book. That hard slot cap is the discipline mechanism — it forces the strategy to concentrate on the strongest reversion candidates and limits how much concurrent drawdown exposure it can accumulate.
Recent Activity
Here the picture is quiet — arguably too quiet. The last six scheduled runs, from 2026-08-26 through 2026-09-02, all report the same line: 0 executed, 0 rejected, cash and total equity flat at $10,000. In other words, the live book has not opened a position in this window. For a mean-reversion strategy, that is not necessarily a fault: if none of the Mag-7 has printed an RSI below the 35 entry threshold, the correct action is to sit on cash and wait. A strategy that refuses to force trades in the absence of a signal is behaving as designed. Still, it means we have no live track record to lean on yet — every performance number below comes from the backtest, not from money at work.
Backtest & Validation
Over 451 days the strategy returned 20.95%, lifting a $10,000 book to $12,095 — an 11.21% CAGR. The 66.67% win rate is the headline strength: two winning trades for every loser across 37 trades is a genuinely favourable hit rate, and it fits the mean-reversion profile of frequent small wins.
The risk side is more sobering. The Sharpe of 0.61 is mediocre — returns came with meaningful volatility, not a smooth ride. More striking is the 23.73% maximum drawdown: at its worst, the book gave back nearly a quarter of its value. A high win rate paired with a deep drawdown usually signals asymmetric losers — the occasional reversion trade that keeps going against you. Turnover of 773% confirms this is an active strategy, churning the book many times over; at $37 total fees over 37 trades the frictional cost stayed low here, but that is a number to watch as size grows.
The most important caveat: validation is null. There is no out-of-sample or walk-forward result on record. A 20% backtest on seven hand-picked mega-caps during a strong era for tech is exactly the kind of figure that demands independent confirmation before it earns trust.
Verdict
RSI Snap-Back is a coherent, disciplined idea with an attractive win rate and a sensible risk cap. But the case rests entirely on a single backtest with no validation, a drawdown deep enough to test conviction, and a live book that has yet to place a trade. Promising on paper — unproven in practice. The next thing to watch is the first live signal, and whether the snap-back actually snaps.