The Thesis
RSI Snap-Back is a mean-reversion strategy trained on the seven mega-cap tech names — AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, META, and TSLA. Its premise is intuitive: large-cap tech tends to overshoot on short-term momentum, then snap back. The rules are deliberately spare — buy the most oversold names when RSI drops below 35, exit when RSI pushes above 70, and rotate holdings to keep a tight four-name book. That hard four-slot cap is the strategy's risk-management spine, forcing concentration discipline and limiting how much concurrent drawdown the book can accumulate.
It's a clean, legible idea. There's no black-box signal here; anyone can reason about why a trade fired.
Recent Activity
Here the picture gets quiet. The last six scheduled runs — from July 8 through July 15 — each executed zero trades and rejected zero candidates. Cash sits at $10,000, total equity at $10,000. In other words, the live book is currently empty and fully in cash.
That isn't necessarily a fault. A mean-reversion system that only acts on RSI extremes should stand down when no name in its universe is genuinely oversold. A week of the Mag-7 trading in a middling RSI band produces exactly this: patient inactivity. Still, it means we have no fresh live fills to evaluate, and the strategy's real-money track record remains thin.
Backtest & Validation
The backtest is where the strategy earns its keep — with caveats. Over 451 days it returned 20.95% (final equity $12,095), an 11.21% CAGR, on 37 trades with a 66.67% win rate. Two out of three trades winning is a genuinely healthy hit rate for a reversion book.
The risk side is less flattering. The Sharpe ratio of 0.61 is modest — respectable but not the mark of a smooth ride — and the 23.73% maximum drawdown is steep, larger than the entire annualized return. An investor would have needed real conviction to sit through that trough. Turnover of 773% also signals a lot of churn; the reported $37 in fees looks benign at this scale, but slippage on a live, larger book could bite harder than the backtest suggests.
The most important line item is what's missing: validation is null. There is no out-of-sample or walk-forward check on record. With only 37 trades and a tuned RSI band, the results are vulnerable to overfitting, and we simply cannot yet distinguish skill from curve-fit.
Verdict
RSI Snap-Back is a well-reasoned, disciplined strategy with an attractive win rate and a sensible concentration cap. But a drawdown that exceeds its return, a middling Sharpe, an idle live book, and — most of all — no validation pass mean it should be treated as a promising hypothesis, not a proven edge. The next milestone isn't a bigger return; it's a clean out-of-sample result.