The Thesis
RSI Snap-Back is a mean-reversion play on the seven largest US tech names — AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, META and TSLA. The premise is straightforward and well-worn: large-cap tech tends to overshoot on short-term momentum, then revert. The strategy buys names when RSI drops below 35 and exits when RSI climbs above 70, holding a hard 4-slot book to cap concurrent exposure. That discipline is the interesting part — rather than chase every oversold signal, it forces a tight rotation and limits how much drawdown can stack up at once.
Backtest Performance
Over 451 days, the backtest returned 20.95%, lifting a $10,000 book to $12,095. That annualises to an 11.21% CAGR — respectable, and it beat the fee drag comfortably (total fees were just $37, with no FX cost thanks to a USD-only universe).
The quality metrics are more mixed. A win rate of 66.67% across 37 trades suggests the entry signal genuinely catches reversions more often than not. But the Sharpe of 0.61 is modest, and the maximum drawdown of 23.73% is deep — larger than the strategy's own CAGR. In plain terms: an investor would have had to stomach a near-quarter drop in equity at some point to earn that 11% a year. Turnover of 773% also stands out; the book churns hard, which is by design for a rotation strategy but leaves it sensitive to slippage and fee assumptions that a paper backtest may understate.
Recent Live Activity
Here is the honest headline: the live book has done nothing for over a week. The last six scheduled runs — from July 6 through July 13 — each report 0 executed, 0 rejected, with cash pinned at $10,000 and total equity flat at $10,000. There are no open positions and no recent trades on record.
That is not necessarily a failure. A mean-reversion strategy that only enters on RSI below 35 will sit idle when its universe isn't oversold, and a flat, all-cash book means the Mag-7 simply hasn't offered a qualifying entry lately. Discipline includes patience. But it does mean the live track record is, so far, untested — every number above comes from the backtest, not from realised trading.
Strengths and Risks
Strengths: a clear, falsifiable rule set; a healthy win rate; low fee drag; and a hard position cap that enforces risk discipline.
Risks: the drawdown is the standout concern — a 23.7% peak-to-trough is heavy for an 11% annual return. The Sharpe below 1.0 says returns aren't especially well paid for the volatility taken. High turnover raises execution-cost sensitivity. And critically, the validation field is null — there's no out-of-sample or walk-forward check on file, so we can't yet rule out that the backtest is curve-fit to a favourable window.
Bottom Line
RSI Snap-Back is a coherent strategy with a plausible edge and a decent backtest, but it carries real drawdown risk and, as of today, an entirely unproven live record. Watch for the first live entries and, ideally, a proper validation run before reading much into the 20.95% headline.