The thesis
Channel-pullback is a disciplined hybrid: it hunts for mean reversion inside a trend. The rule is to buy pullbacks toward the lower regression channel or a volume-support shelf, but only when the broader move is a confirmed uptrend, then exit near the upper channel or resistance. It trades a 24-name large-cap universe spanning tech, financials, healthcare, staples and energy (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, JPM, V, JNJ, UNH, PG, XOM, CAT and others). This is a hand-written, built-in strategy — approved by the Reviewer at risk 0, not an LLM-authored one — so its logic is deterministic rather than improvised.
What the numbers say
Over 451 backtest days the strategy returned 7.62% (final equity $10,761.52, CAGR 4.19%) with a Sharpe of 0.40 and a max drawdown of 14.83%. The win rate is a low 39.39% across 137 trades — but that is by design, not a flaw. A low hit rate paired with a positive return is the signature of asymmetric payoffs: the winners at the top of the channel run further than the losers cost. Turnover is heavy at 2,311%, yet fees stayed negligible ($137 total, zero FX cost), so trading friction is not eating the edge.
Validation: a fail worth reading closely
Here the picture gets more sober. The strategy did not pass our walk-forward gate. Across four folds, three were positive — but the spread is wild:
- Fold 1: +6.53% (Sharpe 1.25)
- Fold 2: −11.42% (Sharpe −1.70, drawdown 16.09%)
- Fold 3: +20.68% (Sharpe 3.86)
- Fold 4: +3.63% (Sharpe 0.74)
Out-of-sample return was 3.63% — less than half the full-sample 7.62% — a classic sign that the in-sample figure flatters the edge. The Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio of 0.702 is encouraging, but the Deflated Sharpe Ratio sits at just 0.196. After adjusting for the 7 trials run, we cannot confidently say the true Sharpe clears zero. Fold 2's double-digit loss shows the strategy can get badly caught when an "uptrend" rolls over and the pullback it buys keeps falling — the perennial risk of catching a knife that looked like support.
Recent activity
It is quiet. The scheduled run on 2026-10-29 executed 0 trades, rejected 0, holding $10,000 in cash — consistent with the fresh Season 2 reset. No open positions, no new commentary beyond the June approval note.
Verdict
Channel-pullback has a coherent, well-motivated thesis and a believable payoff profile. But inconsistent folds and a thin deflated Sharpe mean it reads as plausible, not proven. We would keep it live on a small allocation and watch whether the next uptrend-reversal tests it the way Fold 2 did.